* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122018 08/06/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 42 49 62 73 89 98 102 100 91 86 74 63 54 45 40 37 V (KT) LAND 35 42 49 62 73 89 98 102 100 91 86 74 63 54 45 40 37 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 44 50 58 73 85 93 90 79 65 52 42 34 29 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 3 2 7 11 10 9 4 4 1 7 8 14 13 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 3 3 6 2 1 0 3 2 -1 -1 0 -2 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 9 21 307 63 90 40 33 356 339 6 313 318 274 275 271 274 334 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.2 29.9 29.4 28.4 27.3 25.4 24.0 23.1 21.7 21.7 21.6 21.4 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 161 163 166 163 159 149 138 118 103 94 79 79 77 75 80 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.2 -51.4 -50.7 -51.0 -50.4 -51.1 -50.8 -51.3 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.1 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 79 78 78 73 75 74 76 74 72 70 71 72 72 67 61 57 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 17 23 26 30 31 34 34 32 32 28 24 22 19 18 19 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -19 -12 2 19 31 43 34 30 25 24 79 72 38 55 60 84 200 MB DIV 128 142 128 103 110 103 68 22 45 14 22 5 26 -11 0 -6 -9 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 -2 -14 0 5 0 -2 -7 -1 -1 2 -1 2 1 LAND (KM) 490 482 467 455 452 475 491 402 441 455 545 633 797 1007 1161 1269 1403 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.4 17.4 18.5 19.8 21.1 22.5 23.7 24.8 25.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.0 106.5 107.0 107.5 107.9 109.0 110.4 112.0 113.9 116.0 118.1 120.4 122.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 7 8 9 11 11 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 37 34 32 31 32 26 15 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 82.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 21. 23. 24. 24. 22. 19. 16. 13. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 6. 10. 12. 16. 25. 28. 25. 24. 18. 12. 8. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 3. 6. 11. 16. 25. 23. 13. 3. -3. -9. -13. -15. -16. -15. -15. -14. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 27. 38. 54. 63. 67. 65. 56. 51. 39. 28. 19. 10. 5. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.7 106.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122018 TWELVE 08/06/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.83 16.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 8.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.84 13.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 122.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.81 12.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 4.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 8.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 22.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 -10.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.30 2.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 3.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 73% is 5.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 59% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 62% is 10.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 53% is 11.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.7% 72.6% 59.1% 47.2% 31.0% 59.2% 62.0% 53.5% Logistic: 27.5% 77.7% 65.4% 54.4% 14.2% 73.3% 40.6% 11.2% Bayesian: 5.5% 47.3% 54.9% 27.6% 0.9% 26.7% 20.2% 4.0% Consensus: 17.2% 65.9% 59.8% 43.1% 15.4% 53.1% 40.9% 22.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122018 TWELVE 08/06/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##