* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112018 08/05/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 29 32 39 47 55 59 61 64 67 69 71 72 74 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 29 32 39 47 55 59 61 64 67 69 71 72 74 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 30 30 31 32 34 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 11 16 18 14 9 11 2 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 5 3 2 7 4 1 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 340 331 331 305 313 336 337 276 8 98 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.8 30.4 31.1 30.5 30.0 28.1 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 165 165 163 170 173 172 167 147 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -54.0 -53.5 -52.8 -53.7 -52.5 -52.7 -51.3 -51.1 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 7 8 6 8 6 8 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 71 71 72 76 80 80 76 72 65 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 13 0 -9 -1 2 22 39 58 46 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 62 73 71 86 124 122 147 65 61 1 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 -1 -7 -8 0 12 2 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 331 285 263 242 239 236 217 237 422 425 561 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.2 13.5 13.9 14.2 15.1 16.3 17.8 18.9 19.8 20.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.5 96.5 97.4 98.3 99.3 101.3 103.8 106.5 109.4 112.4 115.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 10 10 12 15 15 15 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 27 34 39 36 42 41 26 15 7 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -1. 4. 11. 20. 27. 32. 34. 38. 41. 45. 48. 50. 54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 14. 22. 30. 34. 36. 39. 42. 44. 46. 47. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 95.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112018 ELEVEN 08/05/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.93 8.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.31 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.60 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 -4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.28 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.67 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.6% 19.1% 0.0% 0.0% 18.0% 21.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 5.8% 2.8% 1.2% 0.2% 8.1% 22.9% 27.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 5.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 20.6% Consensus: 0.6% 10.6% 7.6% 0.4% 0.1% 8.7% 14.9% 15.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112018 ELEVEN 08/05/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##