* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/05/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 107 103 100 96 89 85 81 80 78 78 80 86 89 91 90 V (KT) LAND 110 109 107 103 100 96 89 85 81 80 78 78 80 86 89 91 90 V (KT) LGEM 110 109 106 102 99 92 87 85 85 84 83 82 86 95 102 106 105 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 6 9 4 7 6 2 3 2 1 3 5 3 3 2 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 1 1 0 -3 -1 0 0 5 3 -1 -4 -7 -7 0 2 SHEAR DIR 350 302 304 340 21 41 85 3 351 216 58 26 59 352 355 286 2 SST (C) 27.1 27.5 27.8 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.7 27.2 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.2 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 135 139 142 143 140 137 132 138 133 136 138 137 140 141 142 143 148 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 55 53 51 52 54 55 52 49 44 42 41 38 41 44 46 51 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 20 20 21 20 19 19 19 18 17 16 20 20 21 22 850 MB ENV VOR 40 50 48 51 53 42 43 37 18 28 43 44 52 57 38 25 26 200 MB DIV 13 -1 -9 -18 -7 -5 23 1 3 -13 5 -7 4 27 4 -10 30 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -4 -5 -4 -3 -1 -5 -2 2 0 -2 0 0 0 2 4 LAND (KM) 2264 2153 2042 1916 1791 1513 1204 888 604 370 237 366 520 609 764 957 1153 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.7 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.4 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 134.2 135.3 136.3 137.5 138.7 141.3 144.2 147.2 150.1 153.0 155.9 158.6 161.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 14 14 15 13 14 13 12 12 12 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 4 9 16 15 10 8 11 8 4 8 13 18 24 37 21 31 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -19. -27. -34. -39. -43. -46. -46. -47. -48. -50. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -2. -4. -4. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -7. -10. -14. -21. -25. -29. -30. -32. -32. -30. -24. -21. -19. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 14.3 134.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/05/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.02 0.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 696.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.13 -0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.81 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.5% 17.4% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 3.7% 2.9% 2.5% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 7.1% 4.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/05/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##