* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/04/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 106 105 103 101 94 90 86 83 81 81 82 80 83 85 88 86 V (KT) LAND 105 106 105 103 101 94 90 86 83 81 81 82 80 83 85 88 86 V (KT) LGEM 105 104 101 97 94 89 86 85 84 84 84 84 83 86 94 101 102 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 2 2 3 6 5 7 10 3 6 5 6 7 7 2 2 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 -1 -2 -1 -3 -3 2 4 2 6 3 0 -3 -4 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 328 350 298 296 323 1 35 75 59 44 105 58 28 77 137 116 21 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.1 27.5 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.8 27.2 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.2 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 135 139 143 140 136 133 137 133 136 138 137 140 141 141 142 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -51.8 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 56 56 55 52 50 53 51 49 46 40 40 40 43 45 50 49 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 19 20 20 22 22 21 20 21 20 17 18 18 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 23 38 50 62 53 57 49 50 42 20 36 30 41 51 62 44 40 200 MB DIV 33 23 9 -9 -18 -10 7 28 -7 -6 -1 0 -22 12 44 25 6 700-850 TADV -6 -3 -3 -3 -3 -5 -5 -2 -4 -5 0 -1 -4 0 3 2 0 LAND (KM) 2338 2364 2254 2138 2022 1767 1489 1184 893 610 380 238 374 509 594 740 923 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.3 16.5 16.8 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.2 133.3 134.3 135.4 136.5 138.9 141.5 144.4 147.2 150.1 153.0 156.0 158.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 12 14 14 14 13 14 14 13 11 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 4 9 17 9 8 12 8 4 8 14 18 24 36 19 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -9. -16. -23. -29. -34. -38. -40. -41. -42. -43. -45. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. -0. 1. 2. 1. -0. 0. 0. -4. -2. -2. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -2. -4. -11. -15. -19. -22. -24. -24. -23. -25. -22. -20. -17. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 14.2 132.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/04/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.06 0.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.86 4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 655.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.18 -0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.9% 21.8% 15.5% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 3.1% 2.6% 2.0% 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 8.3% 6.0% 5.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/04/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##