* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/04/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 108 109 108 105 98 93 89 88 85 87 84 85 84 85 87 87 V (KT) LAND 105 108 109 108 105 98 93 89 88 85 87 84 85 84 85 87 87 V (KT) LGEM 105 107 107 104 101 94 90 88 86 86 86 83 80 81 86 93 96 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 2 2 5 6 4 9 6 3 4 7 6 11 6 8 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 -2 -2 0 -4 0 4 5 9 8 7 0 0 -5 1 SHEAR DIR 308 341 34 192 262 351 38 63 103 10 79 30 57 34 12 8 48 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.1 27.5 27.8 27.4 26.8 27.2 27.0 26.7 27.3 27.1 27.3 27.7 27.7 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 138 135 139 143 139 133 138 135 132 138 136 138 143 143 146 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -51.8 -52.4 -51.5 -52.3 -51.7 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 58 57 58 56 53 52 53 51 47 42 39 39 40 43 49 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 20 20 21 22 22 23 22 23 22 21 19 19 21 22 850 MB ENV VOR 19 21 35 44 54 49 55 49 53 30 26 18 20 37 44 37 37 200 MB DIV 15 20 18 15 4 -10 0 31 8 -6 7 -12 -2 0 30 -5 24 700-850 TADV -8 -6 -3 0 0 -4 -2 -6 0 -3 -2 0 -1 -5 0 3 4 LAND (KM) 2252 2335 2357 2249 2141 1903 1626 1335 1028 727 465 286 288 460 559 729 958 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.3 16.5 16.6 16.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.2 132.3 133.3 134.4 135.4 137.7 140.3 143.0 145.9 148.8 151.7 154.5 157.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 12 13 14 14 14 13 13 12 13 14 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 5 5 9 13 9 8 15 6 4 10 14 21 31 23 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -16. -23. -29. -34. -38. -40. -41. -42. -43. -45. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 11. 11. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 8. 5. 3. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 3. 0. -7. -12. -16. -17. -20. -18. -21. -20. -21. -20. -18. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 14.3 131.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/04/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.05 0.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.90 5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 608.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.23 -1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.2% 24.3% 17.8% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 17.4% 13.4% 12.8% 11.6% 6.7% 2.8% 1.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.0% 12.6% 10.2% 9.7% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/04/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##