* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/04/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 104 107 106 104 98 93 93 90 87 88 89 86 82 86 86 86 V (KT) LAND 100 104 107 106 104 98 93 93 90 87 88 89 86 82 86 86 86 V (KT) LGEM 100 105 107 106 103 97 95 92 90 90 90 88 84 79 81 87 90 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 7 5 2 6 4 7 9 4 3 3 8 9 12 8 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 0 2 6 10 6 2 3 -1 -6 SHEAR DIR 38 8 10 37 48 312 36 39 73 88 30 37 56 28 39 20 66 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.1 27.0 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 140 135 134 144 141 139 137 137 136 137 137 136 138 139 141 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 58 58 57 58 56 52 52 52 50 48 41 39 41 43 47 49 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 20 20 20 20 21 24 23 22 23 24 21 17 20 20 22 850 MB ENV VOR 7 23 22 33 43 58 58 57 54 37 28 29 24 45 60 60 63 200 MB DIV 14 4 1 -2 13 -15 -3 27 22 -10 1 -6 7 -5 1 -8 41 700-850 TADV -6 -9 -7 -4 -2 -2 -3 -5 -6 -1 -1 -2 1 -2 -4 0 0 LAND (KM) 2192 2272 2354 2345 2237 2009 1754 1483 1198 903 612 362 226 366 525 626 832 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.3 14.6 15.1 15.5 16.0 16.4 16.7 16.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.3 131.4 132.4 133.5 134.5 136.7 139.1 141.6 144.3 147.1 150.0 153.0 155.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 13 14 15 14 13 13 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 7 4 4 16 11 10 16 8 5 9 13 18 21 23 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -14. -20. -25. -29. -33. -35. -35. -36. -37. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 7. 7. 6. 7. 8. 4. -1. 2. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 6. 4. -2. -7. -7. -10. -13. -12. -11. -14. -18. -14. -14. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 14.2 130.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/04/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.09 0.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.80 4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 560.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.29 -1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.0% 24.3% 17.7% 17.7% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.1% 6.4% 5.1% 4.2% 2.6% 1.6% 1.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.2% 10.3% 7.6% 7.3% 5.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/04/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##