* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/03/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 90 91 90 90 89 88 89 89 90 89 91 92 92 93 93 V (KT) LAND 90 90 90 91 90 90 89 88 89 89 90 89 91 92 92 93 93 V (KT) LGEM 90 91 91 91 91 89 88 88 88 86 84 84 85 84 82 85 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 9 7 3 4 3 7 6 9 4 6 3 6 5 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 -3 0 0 2 1 0 6 8 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 66 39 30 42 16 19 289 327 2 35 82 341 24 28 21 23 347 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.6 27.1 27.7 28.0 27.7 27.2 27.5 27.1 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 139 138 140 135 141 145 142 137 140 136 134 136 138 136 137 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -51.9 -52.4 -51.7 -52.3 -51.9 -52.4 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.2 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 60 61 60 62 62 59 58 53 54 55 54 52 51 50 50 53 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 19 19 19 19 19 20 21 22 22 22 24 23 22 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR -3 2 1 1 18 25 48 41 47 34 27 0 -1 -1 -4 -6 6 200 MB DIV 37 26 17 26 32 0 21 11 -7 -2 -5 -10 5 -25 6 -21 2 700-850 TADV -8 -9 -9 -7 -6 0 0 -1 0 -3 0 -3 0 2 0 0 6 LAND (KM) 1978 2070 2149 2234 2322 2309 2089 1863 1621 1352 1081 808 545 323 197 324 420 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 13.9 13.9 13.8 13.9 14.2 14.7 15.3 16.0 16.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.3 128.4 129.5 130.6 131.7 133.9 136.1 138.3 140.6 143.1 145.6 148.1 150.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 13 13 13 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 20 13 7 6 7 4 10 13 14 13 17 6 5 9 16 20 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -9. -13. -17. -20. -22. -24. -25. -26. -26. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 10. 9. 6. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 14.0 127.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/03/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.19 1.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.65 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 477.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.38 -1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.9% 20.4% 14.1% 14.0% 10.9% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 3.7% 2.3% 1.7% 1.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 8.1% 5.5% 5.2% 4.1% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/03/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##