* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/02/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 69 71 74 76 80 81 82 81 83 85 85 85 87 92 91 V (KT) LAND 60 64 69 71 74 76 80 81 82 81 83 85 85 85 87 92 91 V (KT) LGEM 60 66 70 74 76 80 84 86 87 88 88 87 87 87 88 93 96 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 14 13 11 10 5 6 7 11 8 8 0 5 6 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -5 -3 -2 -4 -4 0 0 1 5 0 1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 53 50 56 63 52 30 340 346 296 318 328 357 349 349 60 17 36 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.9 28.0 27.4 27.4 27.0 28.0 27.9 27.5 27.1 27.8 27.5 27.7 27.4 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 145 144 145 139 139 134 145 144 139 135 143 140 142 139 137 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.0 -52.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 61 61 60 60 61 59 60 58 57 52 53 58 60 55 55 53 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 15 16 15 18 20 21 22 23 25 25 26 26 29 27 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -5 -5 2 13 10 30 27 49 41 38 31 25 5 3 3 16 200 MB DIV 49 46 39 43 31 24 39 8 23 4 8 -11 15 22 27 -4 2 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -4 -4 -6 -8 -8 -3 -2 -4 -4 -2 3 -3 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1604 1680 1762 1847 1936 2114 2307 2247 2010 1777 1556 1335 1111 900 676 477 336 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.7 13.9 14.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.7 123.9 125.0 126.2 127.3 129.7 132.1 134.4 136.8 139.2 141.5 143.7 146.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 12 12 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 10 16 25 28 22 6 5 4 14 12 16 11 18 8 10 14 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. 5. 9. 11. 12. 14. 16. 14. 14. 12. 14. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 11. 14. 16. 20. 21. 22. 21. 23. 25. 25. 25. 27. 32. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.2 122.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/02/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.48 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 6.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.30 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 6.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 338.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.53 -3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.17 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.70 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.4% 27.4% 26.4% 20.6% 15.2% 18.9% 15.5% 13.5% Logistic: 5.3% 10.0% 5.9% 3.6% 3.6% 2.5% 2.9% 1.5% Bayesian: 1.4% 4.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 7.4% 13.8% 11.0% 8.1% 6.4% 7.2% 6.2% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/02/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##