* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/02/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 58 62 64 69 75 79 81 81 78 83 85 83 86 90 91 V (KT) LAND 50 54 58 62 64 69 75 79 81 81 78 83 85 83 86 90 91 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 58 61 64 69 76 82 85 86 84 86 86 83 82 83 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 16 14 14 8 7 7 6 13 10 13 7 7 5 4 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 -4 -3 -1 -1 -4 -3 1 0 6 6 3 5 6 SHEAR DIR 49 52 49 62 65 42 30 352 350 330 335 354 33 323 19 51 53 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.1 27.0 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 149 147 145 140 140 138 143 141 140 138 139 142 136 135 137 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -52.2 -52.6 -52.1 -52.5 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 63 62 60 60 61 61 61 60 59 56 54 59 64 62 62 61 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 16 15 15 17 20 22 22 21 25 27 25 27 29 29 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -1 -6 -6 0 14 13 34 37 45 38 32 22 6 -6 -16 -11 200 MB DIV 57 58 48 36 30 29 59 16 8 15 39 30 19 8 16 9 44 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -5 -5 -4 -5 -8 -6 -3 -3 0 -1 2 3 1 5 4 LAND (KM) 1562 1624 1692 1773 1858 2035 2221 2361 2122 1891 1683 1479 1257 1027 790 568 380 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.4 14.2 14.0 13.7 13.5 13.5 13.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.7 122.8 123.9 125.1 126.2 128.5 130.9 133.3 135.7 138.1 140.3 142.4 144.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 10 11 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 18 28 30 12 6 5 10 9 13 16 14 13 6 7 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 10. 11. 9. 14. 14. 11. 12. 13. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 14. 19. 25. 29. 31. 31. 28. 33. 35. 33. 36. 40. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.9 121.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/02/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.58 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.24 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 5.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 271.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.61 -3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.17 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 24.1% 22.7% 17.3% 12.6% 19.1% 16.5% 14.6% Logistic: 4.8% 10.0% 4.5% 2.7% 2.2% 2.7% 5.9% 3.2% Bayesian: 0.8% 7.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 13.7% 9.5% 6.8% 5.0% 7.4% 7.5% 5.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/02/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##