* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/01/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 51 59 66 71 73 75 76 77 75 82 81 85 86 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 51 59 66 71 73 75 76 77 75 82 81 85 86 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 47 49 55 61 67 73 77 81 80 80 81 83 84 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 14 16 16 14 10 6 8 5 15 11 8 7 4 1 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -3 -3 -6 -4 -4 -3 -1 -2 0 -2 3 5 4 3 SHEAR DIR 54 53 63 60 62 68 48 35 350 329 306 325 354 44 339 121 335 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.0 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.4 27.9 27.4 27.5 27.0 27.2 27.0 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 148 148 149 145 140 139 137 138 143 138 139 134 136 134 131 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -51.9 -52.4 -51.5 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.6 1.1 1.0 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 65 63 61 60 57 57 55 54 55 56 54 55 58 60 59 58 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 15 15 16 18 19 20 21 23 25 24 29 28 30 30 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -17 -8 3 -2 6 19 18 37 36 47 39 43 36 19 5 -6 200 MB DIV 40 51 67 56 48 44 36 36 9 9 -5 22 28 22 -8 13 -20 700-850 TADV -7 -5 -5 -4 -5 -4 -6 -8 -7 -4 -2 -3 0 1 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1462 1513 1564 1625 1691 1859 2035 2214 2387 2196 1996 1794 1587 1381 1163 937 707 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.4 14.3 14.2 14.1 14.1 14.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.9 121.0 122.0 123.1 124.1 126.3 128.5 130.8 132.9 134.9 136.9 138.9 140.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 10 12 18 30 12 6 5 7 12 9 14 15 15 6 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 21. 21. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 12. 16. 13. 14. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 19. 26. 31. 33. 35. 36. 37. 35. 42. 41. 45. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.7 119.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/01/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.67 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.28 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 214.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 -3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 19.8% 19.0% 14.3% 10.0% 15.9% 15.5% 16.0% Logistic: 3.9% 10.4% 4.3% 2.2% 1.5% 0.8% 0.9% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 10.3% 7.8% 5.5% 3.9% 5.6% 5.5% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/01/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##