* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/01/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 47 51 59 68 75 80 82 83 80 78 81 83 83 83 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 47 51 59 68 75 80 82 83 80 78 81 83 83 83 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 43 46 52 59 68 76 81 81 79 77 77 78 79 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 14 14 15 17 11 7 6 8 8 14 9 6 6 3 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 -2 -3 -5 -6 -3 -3 0 0 2 -2 0 0 5 2 SHEAR DIR 54 54 56 63 54 61 59 11 4 327 308 309 324 29 43 315 247 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.7 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.4 27.4 27.0 26.9 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 149 148 148 146 144 140 141 139 140 142 138 138 133 132 133 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 65 66 65 63 59 56 54 54 57 59 57 55 58 59 59 54 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 14 14 15 16 18 19 21 23 25 25 24 26 27 27 26 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -21 -13 -11 -2 0 19 11 23 33 41 32 34 27 18 9 7 200 MB DIV 24 44 53 56 52 58 57 55 34 0 1 -14 1 -14 -2 -16 6 700-850 TADV -8 -8 -6 -3 -5 -5 -5 -8 -9 -7 -6 -5 -3 -1 2 -2 -4 LAND (KM) 1422 1481 1532 1592 1657 1800 1971 2134 2276 2381 2176 1973 1774 1578 1368 1164 951 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.1 14.0 14.0 13.9 13.9 13.9 14.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.9 120.0 121.1 122.2 123.2 125.2 127.3 129.3 131.2 133.2 135.2 137.2 139.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 11 11 15 28 25 8 7 6 8 12 9 13 13 15 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 21. 23. 25. 25. 26. 27. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 18. 15. 16. 15. 14. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 24. 33. 40. 45. 47. 48. 45. 44. 46. 48. 48. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.3 118.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/01/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.72 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.31 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 -3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.5% 19.6% 18.2% 13.6% 9.6% 15.2% 15.4% 18.3% Logistic: 3.2% 10.4% 4.0% 2.2% 1.5% 0.9% 2.1% 5.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 10.4% 7.5% 5.3% 3.7% 5.4% 5.9% 7.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/01/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##