* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092018 07/27/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 26 25 24 26 27 30 33 38 42 45 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 26 25 24 26 27 30 33 38 42 45 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 28 27 26 26 25 25 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 23 22 21 23 24 24 24 25 21 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -6 -4 -4 -4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 341 342 341 330 327 331 326 333 326 317 306 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.4 27.3 27.5 27.9 28.1 27.8 28.0 27.8 28.3 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 137 139 143 146 143 145 143 149 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 60 59 58 61 60 60 61 60 61 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -13 -14 -10 -1 7 21 18 13 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 -5 -21 -36 -47 -32 -27 -4 7 5 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -4 -3 -3 -5 -2 2 1 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2028 1938 1849 1752 1657 1459 1250 1054 864 704 649 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.6 10.6 10.8 11.2 11.6 12.1 12.7 13.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 138.3 139.3 140.3 141.4 142.4 144.6 146.9 149.3 151.8 154.4 156.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 6 6 7 10 13 13 18 12 33 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 28. 29. 31. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -9. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -4. -3. -0. 3. 8. 12. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.6 138.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092018 NINE 07/27/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.69 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.08 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.66 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092018 NINE 07/27/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##