* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP082018 07/27/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 39 38 35 32 27 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 39 38 35 32 27 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 38 38 35 30 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 17 11 15 21 25 29 33 35 38 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 5 7 6 5 6 4 5 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 312 307 276 258 262 273 271 282 284 280 284 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.2 27.2 27.0 27.1 26.7 27.2 26.5 25.9 26.3 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 136 134 135 131 136 129 123 127 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -54.4 -54.2 -54.9 -55.2 -55.5 -55.9 -56.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 62 63 61 59 57 55 49 46 46 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 15 15 14 13 11 10 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -10 -12 -9 -14 -15 -4 -1 -4 -5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 35 49 59 42 11 -18 21 3 -14 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -15 -12 -12 -12 -11 -8 -6 -4 -4 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1970 2035 2105 2167 2233 2242 2019 1796 1570 1329 1100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.4 17.7 17.8 17.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.7 128.9 130.1 131.1 132.1 133.9 135.9 137.9 140.0 142.3 144.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 10 9 10 10 10 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 6 4 3 4 3 13 2 0 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 19. 19. 19. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -14. -20. -26. -28. -29. -29. -29. -32. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. -1. -2. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 3. -0. -3. -8. -13. -20. -25. -26. -26. -27. -27. -29. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.6 127.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082018 GILMA 07/27/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.62 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.11 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 -3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.86 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 12.7% 12.4% 9.1% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 4.6% 4.3% 3.1% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082018 GILMA 07/27/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##