* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092018 07/27/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 28 27 27 28 28 28 28 29 29 31 34 38 43 46 49 V (KT) LAND 30 30 28 27 27 28 28 28 28 29 29 31 34 38 43 46 49 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 27 26 26 26 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 20 24 25 23 26 22 25 21 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 -1 -1 -5 -5 -4 -2 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 340 333 341 342 334 332 332 334 331 308 298 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.5 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.2 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 138 136 139 146 145 145 145 148 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.3 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 64 60 58 59 61 60 61 60 60 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -3 -11 -13 -9 5 15 13 8 8 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 24 12 -12 -42 -51 -44 -27 -1 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -6 -4 -2 -2 -3 -5 1 5 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2126 2029 1935 1834 1735 1547 1341 1138 936 770 702 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.9 11.3 11.8 12.2 12.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 137.2 138.3 139.3 140.4 141.5 143.7 146.0 148.4 151.0 153.9 156.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 14 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 7 6 5 8 12 14 15 18 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 28. 30. 31. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -9. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -12. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 16. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.7 137.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092018 NINE 07/27/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.69 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 6.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 2.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 2.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092018 NINE 07/27/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##