* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082018 07/27/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 40 41 43 42 40 37 32 28 25 25 25 23 21 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 40 41 43 42 40 37 32 28 25 25 25 23 21 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 36 35 32 28 25 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 9 13 14 8 17 16 16 21 27 30 31 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 5 0 3 5 8 11 3 3 3 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 287 297 313 310 299 275 267 251 288 298 291 286 303 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.2 26.3 26.8 27.2 26.6 26.4 26.4 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 143 141 140 135 126 132 136 130 128 128 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 -54.2 -54.3 -54.9 -55.2 -55.2 -55.5 -56.0 -56.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.7 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 66 66 65 65 63 61 58 53 51 49 51 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 14 15 15 15 14 13 11 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -13 -10 -11 -19 -21 -20 -14 -15 -16 -9 -2 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 50 33 39 49 22 -3 2 6 -1 -2 -29 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -18 -21 -18 -13 -13 -12 -8 -9 -4 -2 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1785 1879 1979 2059 2130 2238 2318 2110 1900 1687 1467 1236 1000 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.5 15.0 15.6 16.4 16.9 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.6 126.0 127.4 128.6 129.8 131.7 133.3 135.1 137.0 139.0 141.1 143.3 145.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 11 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 21 16 10 7 5 1 6 9 2 1 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. 25. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -14. -14. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 13. 12. 10. 7. 2. -2. -5. -5. -5. -7. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.7 124.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082018 EIGHT 07/27/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.71 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.52 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 -4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.2% 20.3% 18.8% 14.0% 0.0% 14.7% 12.8% 12.5% Logistic: 5.9% 16.6% 9.1% 4.5% 0.8% 2.6% 0.5% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.7% 3.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 13.4% 9.5% 6.2% 0.3% 5.8% 4.5% 4.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082018 EIGHT 07/27/18 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING