* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHRIS AL032018 07/12/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 53 47 43 37 27 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 53 47 43 37 27 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 53 48 44 41 36 36 37 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 33 37 33 35 34 26 19 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 4 5 6 6 3 -2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 203 202 208 211 217 229 197 163 196 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 16.6 9.9 7.4 7.0 9.4 8.9 10.1 10.8 10.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 77 71 70 69 70 69 68 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 74 69 69 68 69 68 67 66 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.1 -53.8 -53.5 -52.8 -50.0 -47.3 -46.0 -46.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.7 -0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.9 3.7 4.6 4.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 46 45 43 37 37 51 55 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 27 27 24 20 21 24 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 44 16 17 16 106 168 165 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 -10 0 0 -22 -47 7 17 -48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 -26 -35 -54 -77 -58 -33 -10 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 255 160 36 329 641 1300 1210 989 801 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 43.4 45.4 47.4 49.1 50.7 53.5 56.1 58.9 61.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.2 55.8 52.4 48.5 44.7 36.0 28.6 23.3 18.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 31 31 31 30 30 27 22 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 30 CX,CY: 19/ 23 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 469 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -17. -21. -26. -30. -33. -37. -40. -43. -45. -46. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -13. -16. -20. -24. -29. -33. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -9. -13. -17. -20. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -11. -9. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -17. -23. -33. -43. -48. -56. -59. -62. -64. -70. -78. -84. -88. -89. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 43.4 59.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 CHRIS 07/12/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 331.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.58 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 86.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.17 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 CHRIS 07/12/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 CHRIS 07/12/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 53 47 43 37 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 53 49 43 33 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 52 46 36 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 44 34 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT