* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHRIS AL032018 07/10/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 63 64 67 70 78 78 70 57 44 34 33 29 27 27 25 V (KT) LAND 60 62 63 64 67 70 78 78 70 57 44 34 33 29 27 27 25 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 64 65 67 71 76 67 50 41 37 38 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 14 12 9 14 12 25 35 40 43 50 43 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 0 -1 2 1 4 1 0 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 12 8 9 325 316 220 217 219 241 255 265 268 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.0 26.0 24.7 20.5 9.9 6.0 10.0 11.0 12.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 133 134 125 117 107 85 69 67 69 70 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 108 110 111 113 108 103 95 77 67 67 68 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.6 -54.1 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 -55.2 -55.8 -55.2 -52.8 -50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 8 8 7 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 36 34 35 40 47 49 45 45 46 47 36 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 19 18 20 21 28 30 27 21 18 16 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -7 -20 -16 11 22 42 55 37 -28 -13 57 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 17 33 29 23 61 40 39 37 9 -5 -27 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 5 11 19 24 18 1 -31 -22 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 338 342 353 372 405 589 481 310 196 210 736 1313 1155 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.4 32.7 33.0 33.7 34.3 36.4 39.2 42.3 45.1 47.6 49.6 51.2 52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.2 73.8 73.3 72.5 71.6 68.6 64.8 60.9 56.0 50.0 43.0 35.1 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 7 10 13 18 21 22 24 25 26 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 16 12 13 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -4. -8. -12. -15. -20. -24. -26. -28. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -9. -15. -21. -23. -27. -30. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 1. 1. 8. 11. 7. -1. -7. -10. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 18. 18. 10. -3. -16. -26. -27. -31. -33. -33. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 32.4 74.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 CHRIS 07/10/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.62 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 515.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.39 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.72 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 14.4% 9.7% 7.2% 6.3% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 2.7% 4.0% 1.9% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 5.7% 4.6% 3.1% 2.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 CHRIS 07/10/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 CHRIS 07/10/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 62 63 64 67 70 78 78 70 57 44 34 33 29 27 27 25 18HR AGO 60 59 60 61 64 67 75 75 67 54 41 31 30 26 24 24 22 12HR AGO 60 57 56 57 60 63 71 71 63 50 37 27 26 22 20 20 18 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 53 56 64 64 56 43 30 20 19 15 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT