* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHRIS AL032018 07/09/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 53 55 57 60 63 70 77 70 54 40 27 24 23 23 23 V (KT) LAND 50 51 53 55 57 60 63 70 77 70 54 40 27 24 23 23 23 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 53 55 58 62 67 67 52 39 33 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 7 10 13 11 13 15 26 34 36 40 45 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -5 -3 -1 1 -2 1 2 1 5 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 50 45 22 22 15 331 283 220 205 207 223 238 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 27.8 26.6 27.2 23.5 13.9 8.9 5.7 6.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 132 134 136 134 122 129 98 71 67 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 105 104 106 108 111 113 106 112 87 68 66 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -54.8 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -53.6 -54.2 -54.1 -54.7 -54.3 -55.3 -55.7 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 1.2 0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 7 6 6 9 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 42 37 36 35 34 44 44 45 43 40 39 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 19 20 20 22 21 26 32 30 21 16 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -14 -29 -27 -15 -5 17 26 27 43 15 7 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 14 -6 7 11 20 34 56 56 17 -2 -16 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 1 0 0 3 7 6 3 -6 1 -1 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 340 338 335 332 329 358 467 490 354 183 99 85 466 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.4 32.5 33.4 35.2 37.6 40.4 43.5 46.2 48.2 50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.5 74.6 74.6 74.4 74.2 72.9 70.6 67.8 64.5 61.0 56.7 51.9 47.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 0 1 2 5 10 15 18 20 21 19 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 16 16 17 16 12 4 6 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):155/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -3. -8. -14. -20. -24. -27. -28. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 5. 13. 10. -2. -11. -19. -19. -18. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 20. 27. 20. 4. -10. -23. -26. -27. -27. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 32.2 74.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 CHRIS 07/09/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.70 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 426.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.48 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.26 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.75 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 13.7% 9.2% 6.7% 5.9% 8.7% 10.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 5.6% 6.9% 2.7% 0.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 6.6% 5.4% 3.2% 2.1% 3.3% 3.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 CHRIS 07/09/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 CHRIS 07/09/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 53 55 57 60 63 70 77 70 54 40 27 24 23 23 23 18HR AGO 50 49 51 53 55 58 61 68 75 68 52 38 25 22 21 21 21 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 50 53 56 63 70 63 47 33 20 17 16 16 16 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 42 45 48 55 62 55 39 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT