* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE AL032018 07/07/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 44 50 56 61 64 70 76 74 66 63 61 61 60 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 44 50 56 61 64 70 76 74 66 56 54 54 53 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 37 40 45 51 54 56 60 63 56 49 45 45 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 11 14 13 12 12 3 11 8 8 15 31 46 48 44 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -6 -2 -2 6 -1 1 0 2 7 7 -2 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 316 313 316 310 318 332 9 23 7 271 211 242 244 255 253 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.0 27.5 26.6 26.1 27.8 20.7 11.0 8.7 7.9 6.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 137 137 137 134 128 120 116 137 85 68 65 63 62 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 109 109 110 111 109 106 101 100 118 78 67 63 61 61 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.5 -55.6 -55.9 -55.7 -55.5 -55.5 -55.4 -55.2 -55.3 -54.8 -54.0 -53.0 -54.2 -54.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.6 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 4 4 5 5 7 6 7 6 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 55 54 52 51 46 45 41 41 47 51 48 40 41 39 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 11 12 12 13 15 15 15 17 20 21 20 24 27 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 3 -9 -5 -10 -15 -1 -6 -2 53 35 33 33 -16 -42 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 17 8 28 31 -18 10 8 54 23 59 29 -8 -3 -32 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 0 0 1 3 6 7 3 21 33 -2 -18 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 236 233 231 244 259 318 367 431 587 511 379 231 27 32 199 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.9 33.0 33.1 33.2 33.2 33.3 33.8 34.8 36.3 38.3 41.2 44.7 47.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.3 75.1 75.0 74.7 74.4 73.5 72.4 71.1 68.9 65.9 62.1 57.6 54.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 3 3 4 6 10 13 18 22 20 13 9 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 23 23 22 21 14 8 5 0 27 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 18. 17. 15. 12. 10. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 4. -3. -13. -21. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 3. 7. 7. 6. 10. 13. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 14. 20. 26. 31. 34. 40. 46. 44. 36. 33. 31. 31. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.9 75.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 THREE 07/07/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.66 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.46 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.90 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 15.8% 10.3% 6.9% 5.9% 8.4% 11.0% 13.1% Logistic: 11.5% 40.5% 27.1% 10.6% 5.0% 15.2% 9.2% 1.8% Bayesian: 2.9% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 6.8% 19.5% 12.6% 5.9% 3.6% 7.9% 6.8% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 THREE 07/07/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 THREE 07/07/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 42 44 50 56 61 64 70 76 74 66 56 54 54 53 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 40 46 52 57 60 66 72 70 62 52 50 50 49 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 33 39 45 50 53 59 65 63 55 45 43 43 42 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 28 34 39 42 48 54 52 44 34 32 32 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT