* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/07/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 38 36 36 36 35 32 30 31 32 35 37 39 39 40 41 V (KT) LAND 45 40 38 36 36 36 35 32 31 31 33 36 38 39 40 40 42 V (KT) LGEM 45 39 35 33 31 29 27 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 13 18 20 21 32 35 39 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 6 6 3 -5 -3 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 299 276 277 286 286 275 279 288 281 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.9 27.1 27.5 27.8 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 117 120 121 126 129 134 137 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 116 120 121 126 129 134 137 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.9 -54.8 -55.0 -55.0 -54.6 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 53 54 53 51 49 49 49 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 7 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 53 49 47 49 33 39 33 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 -2 19 12 15 16 40 38 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 5 7 5 3 6 9 2 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 776 802 733 601 511 502 145 44 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.9 13.4 14.0 14.5 15.6 16.7 17.9 19.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.0 53.4 54.8 56.5 58.2 61.9 65.9 70.0 74.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 16 17 18 20 20 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 1 2 5 21 11 29 21 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -15. -19. -21. -21. -21. -21. -21. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -6. -3. -2. -2. -3. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -10. -12. -15. -14. -13. -10. -8. -6. -6. -5. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.4 52.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/07/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.44 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 278.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.43 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 60.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.42 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 8.2% 5.5% 4.5% 4.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 2.8% 1.9% 1.5% 1.3% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/07/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/07/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 40 38 36 36 36 35 32 31 31 33 36 38 39 40 40 42 18HR AGO 45 44 42 40 40 40 39 36 35 35 37 40 42 43 44 44 46 12HR AGO 45 42 41 39 39 39 38 35 34 34 36 39 41 42 43 43 45 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 35 34 31 30 30 32 35 37 38 39 39 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT