* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/06/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 74 74 73 70 66 64 61 62 63 65 67 69 72 75 77 V (KT) LAND 70 73 74 74 73 70 66 64 61 62 63 65 67 69 72 75 77 V (KT) LGEM 70 75 77 78 77 75 73 68 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 7 3 9 14 13 21 22 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 1 0 0 1 3 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 25 27 353 308 325 294 292 274 275 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.6 26.5 25.9 26.1 26.0 26.7 27.1 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 120 119 114 116 116 124 128 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 116 118 117 111 115 116 124 128 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.6 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -54.4 -54.9 -54.6 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 60 60 60 58 54 51 49 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 14 13 12 11 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 57 53 54 43 48 41 49 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 22 36 26 15 7 10 21 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -2 -2 -3 0 3 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 944 903 861 836 827 827 587 460 304 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.8 12.2 13.1 14.0 14.9 15.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.0 47.0 48.0 49.1 50.3 53.2 56.7 60.4 64.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 11 12 13 16 18 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 6 9 3 6 0 9 14 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -4. -6. -9. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. 2. 5. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 10.7 46.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/06/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.76 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 321.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.59 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.16 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.66 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.0% 19.8% 14.8% 9.2% 7.8% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 11.5% 9.4% 3.6% 0.9% 4.0% 1.0% 0.7% Bayesian: 9.2% 5.4% 4.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 10.0% 12.2% 9.4% 4.5% 3.0% 4.8% 0.4% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/06/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/06/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 5( 9) 4( 12) 4( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 73 74 74 73 70 66 64 61 62 63 65 67 69 72 75 77 18HR AGO 70 69 70 70 69 66 62 60 57 58 59 61 63 65 68 71 73 12HR AGO 70 67 66 66 65 62 58 56 53 54 55 57 59 61 64 67 69 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 59 56 52 50 47 48 49 51 53 55 58 61 63 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT