* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP072018 07/03/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 86 92 97 101 100 90 71 56 43 35 27 21 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 86 92 97 101 100 90 71 56 43 35 27 21 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 85 90 92 93 85 67 47 34 27 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 3 1 6 5 5 4 3 6 5 6 3 8 12 15 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 4 2 4 7 13 9 6 1 2 1 -1 -2 0 5 11 SHEAR DIR 12 61 35 58 48 98 145 164 187 191 220 256 267 281 267 278 256 SST (C) 28.1 27.6 27.1 26.7 26.5 24.5 23.4 20.7 21.9 21.2 20.8 21.4 21.3 21.5 21.2 21.8 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 141 136 132 130 109 98 69 82 74 69 75 74 76 73 79 81 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -51.9 -51.2 -51.6 -50.9 -50.9 -50.7 -50.5 -50.5 -50.4 -50.5 -50.5 -50.5 -50.2 -50.3 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.5 2.0 2.4 2.2 2.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 700-500 MB RH 70 68 66 64 65 66 61 59 56 51 48 45 45 43 38 39 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 38 39 42 43 46 45 42 35 32 27 25 22 19 17 15 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 79 72 78 79 80 60 46 24 12 -16 -15 -35 -43 -51 -55 -71 -75 200 MB DIV 93 94 99 75 26 13 19 -7 18 23 19 4 -3 -13 -24 -14 -16 700-850 TADV -1 1 1 4 5 7 21 26 24 15 19 6 16 8 21 12 26 LAND (KM) 989 998 1027 1074 1105 1187 1268 1339 1452 1485 1519 1601 1665 1778 1802 1695 1591 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.4 15.9 16.5 17.0 18.4 19.9 21.5 23.1 24.6 25.8 26.7 27.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.9 115.2 116.4 117.7 118.9 121.5 124.0 126.3 128.5 130.5 132.4 134.3 136.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 14 14 13 13 11 10 9 10 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -9. -17. -24. -30. -36. -41. -46. -51. -56. -60. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. 16. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 6. 4. -3. -8. -14. -18. -21. -22. -22. -22. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 21. 20. 10. -9. -24. -37. -45. -53. -59. -65. -69. -74. -77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 14.8 113.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072018 FABIO 07/03/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.25 2.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.76 6.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.57 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 5.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 4.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 339.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.53 -3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 29.1% 35.5% 28.9% 21.5% 15.3% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 33.4% 41.7% 27.8% 21.3% 5.8% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 10.3% 6.3% 2.4% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 24.3% 27.8% 19.7% 14.8% 7.1% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072018 FABIO 07/03/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##