* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP072018 07/02/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 70 80 90 102 110 108 97 83 69 57 46 38 31 22 N/A V (KT) LAND 55 61 70 80 90 102 110 108 97 83 69 57 46 38 31 22 N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 62 69 78 87 101 103 94 77 60 44 32 24 19 15 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 5 9 11 7 9 7 6 3 5 8 12 14 17 27 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 4 2 4 2 2 3 14 19 15 7 7 3 1 1 2 SHEAR DIR 42 44 63 44 40 27 35 35 29 8 229 237 216 226 216 237 232 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 27.8 26.7 25.9 24.8 23.2 22.5 22.8 21.7 21.5 22.9 22.3 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 152 151 149 143 132 124 112 96 88 91 80 77 92 85 86 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -52.9 -52.2 -52.6 -51.9 -52.1 -51.4 -51.8 -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.6 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 8 7 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 74 73 75 74 74 70 68 65 65 62 59 55 47 39 33 29 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 33 36 40 42 46 46 42 38 33 29 26 23 19 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 62 63 59 64 71 67 74 59 43 28 16 7 -6 -1 21 37 34 200 MB DIV 89 98 100 101 112 46 33 10 34 10 10 15 35 -5 32 -30 -6 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -2 -3 -1 -2 0 3 7 25 29 28 29 19 19 17 LAND (KM) 883 920 971 1030 1083 1100 1190 1270 1377 1458 1550 1681 1739 1819 1885 1686 1516 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.4 13.7 14.6 15.5 16.5 17.7 19.1 20.6 22.0 23.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.0 110.1 111.2 112.3 113.4 115.7 118.2 120.7 123.2 125.7 128.1 130.4 132.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 36 40 37 18 13 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 68.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. -0. -4. -8. -12. -15. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 6. 9. 10. 17. 23. 20. 15. 7. 2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 19. 11. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 15. 25. 35. 47. 55. 53. 42. 28. 14. 2. -8. -17. -24. -33. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.4 109.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072018 FABIO 07/02/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.58 10.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 8.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.61 8.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.69 9.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 11.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 5.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 116.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -8.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.26 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 3.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.76 1.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 4.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 38% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 26.3% 57.1% 51.6% 41.2% 24.5% 38.3% 22.5% 14.5% Logistic: 15.3% 43.7% 27.8% 18.3% 5.1% 21.5% 12.3% 1.4% Bayesian: 24.7% 65.4% 69.7% 46.5% 8.0% 47.0% 18.1% 0.0% Consensus: 22.1% 55.4% 49.7% 35.3% 12.5% 35.6% 17.6% 5.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072018 FABIO 07/02/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##