* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP072018 07/01/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 53 63 73 84 103 117 120 114 100 88 73 60 50 40 30 20 V (KT) LAND 45 53 63 73 84 103 117 120 114 100 88 73 60 50 40 30 20 V (KT) LGEM 45 53 62 72 83 106 118 114 100 82 63 46 33 24 18 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 6 8 4 5 8 9 8 7 4 6 10 9 17 25 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 2 2 2 0 1 5 11 16 18 9 14 6 6 -1 SHEAR DIR 19 32 22 40 9 14 69 56 43 15 319 272 270 210 206 222 231 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.4 27.7 26.9 26.1 25.0 23.2 22.8 23.0 21.9 21.6 23.0 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 152 153 152 149 142 134 126 114 96 92 94 82 78 92 88 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.8 -52.9 -53.5 -53.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -51.9 -51.3 -51.9 -51.2 -51.6 -51.3 -51.7 -52.1 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 4 3 1 0 0 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 71 71 74 72 74 73 71 69 65 60 57 55 51 43 36 27 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 25 27 30 31 38 44 46 46 41 37 32 27 24 19 14 10 850 MB ENV VOR 49 50 59 63 61 69 74 87 76 62 48 33 34 12 25 16 18 200 MB DIV 53 60 95 107 107 104 55 -34 -30 44 30 -4 9 6 -5 2 -22 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -3 -3 -3 0 0 2 4 29 24 21 18 17 19 LAND (KM) 822 859 899 935 985 1080 1121 1221 1302 1399 1481 1586 1728 1782 1872 1846 1658 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.8 13.1 13.8 14.5 15.2 16.2 17.5 18.9 20.3 21.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.0 108.2 109.3 110.4 111.5 113.6 115.9 118.3 120.8 123.3 125.8 128.3 130.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 11 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 13 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 51 44 36 41 31 13 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 77.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 13. 12. 9. 6. 2. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 4. 6. 8. 13. 22. 31. 35. 28. 22. 14. 7. 3. -2. -6. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 10. 15. 24. 22. 13. 3. -3. -8. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 18. 28. 39. 58. 72. 75. 69. 55. 43. 28. 15. 5. -5. -15. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.8 107.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072018 FABIO 07/01/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.66 10.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 8.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.70 8.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.61 7.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 6.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 96.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 -7.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.38 2.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.75 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 49% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 52% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.0% 45.7% 43.4% 36.3% 21.2% 49.1% 51.7% 18.2% Logistic: 12.7% 41.9% 29.8% 17.1% 6.0% 30.5% 39.7% 11.7% Bayesian: 47.0% 80.4% 74.3% 57.7% 19.6% 57.7% 58.7% 0.8% Consensus: 25.2% 56.0% 49.2% 37.0% 15.6% 45.7% 50.0% 10.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072018 FABIO 07/01/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##