* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP062018 06/30/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 23 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 27 24 23 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 26 24 22 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 5 6 10 13 15 19 18 24 25 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 1 2 0 7 5 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 37 301 249 239 244 242 247 247 242 240 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 25.4 24.7 24.2 24.4 23.4 22.0 22.2 22.8 22.2 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 117 110 105 107 97 82 84 90 84 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 59 56 55 56 51 46 38 34 31 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 16 16 16 14 13 11 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 15 7 17 18 16 38 42 44 28 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 5 18 7 0 10 -17 -33 -31 -19 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 2 1 5 0 -2 -4 -2 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1048 1084 1129 1181 1240 1313 1401 1542 1718 1846 1988 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.6 18.9 19.8 20.8 21.5 22.0 22.3 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.7 119.7 120.6 121.6 122.5 124.5 126.5 128.6 130.8 133.0 135.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 3. 0. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -2. -7. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -16. -19. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -10. -12. -14. -16. -15. -14. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -7. -9. -14. -21. -30. -37. -44. -51. -54. -56. -58. -59. -63. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.5 118.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062018 EMILIA 06/30/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.46 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 200.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.76 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062018 EMILIA 06/30/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##