* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP062018 06/30/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 29 27 26 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 32 29 27 26 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 30 27 25 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 5 4 6 9 14 14 17 20 23 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -2 -2 3 1 3 3 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 59 28 330 276 256 267 234 253 240 248 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.3 25.8 24.8 24.7 24.6 22.7 22.0 22.6 22.7 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 126 121 111 110 109 89 82 88 89 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 61 56 55 56 54 47 41 36 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 18 17 17 16 14 12 11 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 36 14 11 22 12 28 41 42 33 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 2 -6 14 3 18 -1 -27 -36 -32 -38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 1 4 6 -7 -3 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1074 1106 1146 1190 1241 1329 1390 1471 1623 1799 1906 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.9 19.9 20.9 21.5 21.9 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.1 119.1 120.0 121.0 121.9 123.7 125.6 127.4 129.5 131.7 133.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -3. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -9. -13. -18. -27. -32. -38. -44. -45. -47. -47. -47. -49. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.8 118.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062018 EMILIA 06/30/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.48 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.68 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062018 EMILIA 06/30/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##