* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP062018 06/29/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 49 49 49 47 45 39 31 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 50 49 49 49 47 45 39 31 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 52 51 47 43 37 30 24 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 16 13 10 5 3 9 9 15 13 18 20 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 -2 0 0 0 9 2 3 4 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 55 47 54 47 60 228 254 236 255 245 258 239 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.9 27.0 26.8 26.5 25.3 25.1 23.1 22.2 22.2 23.1 22.4 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 134 132 128 116 114 93 84 84 93 86 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 61 62 59 61 60 58 53 48 43 38 35 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 22 22 22 20 21 18 16 14 12 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 52 49 38 30 14 17 19 35 36 51 25 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 25 30 2 -3 4 17 9 -22 -27 -35 -12 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -1 -3 -1 3 2 12 0 -2 -3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 985 1022 1066 1095 1133 1215 1319 1389 1482 1579 1714 1803 1881 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.3 18.0 18.7 19.4 20.2 21.0 21.7 22.5 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.9 116.9 117.8 118.8 119.7 121.5 123.3 125.1 127.0 128.7 130.6 132.6 134.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 2 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -6. -10. -12. -15. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. -3. -7. -10. -13. -14. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -11. -19. -26. -31. -37. -41. -41. -40. -41. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.0 115.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062018 EMILIA 06/29/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.46 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 276.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.6 2.2 to -2.3 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 4.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062018 EMILIA 06/29/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##