* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP062018 06/28/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 48 50 51 53 53 51 45 38 34 29 29 30 30 29 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 48 50 51 53 53 51 45 38 34 29 29 30 30 29 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 48 49 49 48 44 40 34 28 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 13 16 17 16 14 7 1 6 10 11 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 4 -1 0 -2 0 1 7 3 5 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 49 53 65 64 69 79 62 78 273 273 290 254 270 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.6 27.0 26.8 26.4 25.1 24.5 24.1 22.9 22.5 23.3 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 140 134 132 127 114 107 103 91 87 96 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 67 65 62 63 61 57 56 52 44 38 34 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 20 21 22 22 22 20 20 18 15 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 48 50 48 56 42 23 30 32 40 39 44 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 75 57 33 21 6 -17 -4 -1 -17 -40 -34 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 2 4 5 0 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 968 970 987 1010 1044 1105 1174 1252 1326 1383 1503 1670 1833 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.3 17.0 17.6 18.3 19.1 20.1 20.8 21.3 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.1 114.2 115.2 116.2 117.1 118.9 120.6 122.2 123.9 125.7 127.7 129.9 132.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 9 6 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. -1. -5. -6. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 11. 5. -2. -6. -11. -11. -10. -10. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.7 113.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062018 EMILIA 06/28/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.61 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.19 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 185.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 -3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.4 2.2 to -2.3 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.8% 18.3% 17.5% 13.2% 9.0% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 3.8% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 7.4% 6.4% 4.6% 3.1% 4.7% 0.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062018 EMILIA 06/28/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##