* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP062018 06/28/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 43 48 52 55 54 50 44 42 38 39 41 42 43 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 43 48 52 55 54 50 44 42 38 39 41 42 43 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 41 42 43 41 39 36 30 27 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 15 11 14 14 13 9 5 2 4 4 0 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 4 3 1 0 0 -3 3 6 0 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 50 48 54 66 68 80 80 119 316 268 300 358 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.6 27.1 26.7 26.2 24.9 24.9 23.8 23.3 23.2 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 146 140 135 130 125 111 111 100 95 95 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.3 -53.7 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 68 68 66 64 64 60 58 56 52 45 38 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 19 20 20 20 22 22 22 21 19 15 15 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 50 54 56 53 54 27 19 28 36 43 41 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 44 59 45 39 33 -11 -20 -5 6 -29 -21 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 -3 0 1 4 0 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 944 978 983 1001 1031 1106 1158 1228 1310 1392 1491 1636 1797 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.4 17.0 17.5 18.2 18.9 19.6 20.2 20.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.0 113.1 114.2 115.2 116.2 118.0 119.7 121.2 122.8 124.6 126.6 128.8 131.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 13 9 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 438 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 14. 12. 10. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 7. 4. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 17. 20. 19. 15. 9. 7. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.2 112.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062018 EMILIA 06/28/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.68 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.28 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 -3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.93 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 18.7% 13.9% 9.2% 0.0% 12.3% 12.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 6.9% 4.8% 3.2% 0.0% 4.3% 4.3% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062018 EMILIA 06/28/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##