* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOTTA EP042018 06/17/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 66 68 70 71 71 71 72 73 75 76 76 76 78 78 V (KT) LAND 55 51 45 39 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 46 39 34 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 12 8 4 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 15 31 40 10 347 358 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 148 146 142 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -52.5 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 10 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 70 69 70 70 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 53 46 41 52 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 79 83 79 68 58 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 25 2 -22 -51 -80 -127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.4 17.7 18.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 99.5 99.6 99.8 100.0 100.1 100.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 16 15 12 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 17. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. 23. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.4 99.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042018 CARLOTTA 06/17/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.54 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.64 7.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.55 5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 8.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 5.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 -6.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 3.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.5% 48.8% 38.8% 26.4% 17.1% 28.3% 17.7% 14.6% Logistic: 15.4% 43.8% 39.6% 24.9% 16.8% 28.9% 21.6% 9.4% Bayesian: 4.4% 28.0% 16.4% 9.2% 2.2% 11.7% 6.4% 2.3% Consensus: 11.8% 40.2% 31.6% 20.2% 12.1% 23.0% 15.2% 8.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042018 CARLOTTA 06/17/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##