* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042018 06/15/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 43 46 51 54 57 59 61 63 66 68 69 70 72 74 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 34 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 33 31 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 13 11 12 11 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 1 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 5 18 14 15 12 360 352 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 147 145 140 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 9 8 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 74 73 72 71 73 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 8 21 25 28 64 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 46 34 28 36 63 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 61 32 4 -23 -50 -89 -138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 99.4 99.2 99.0 98.8 98.7 98.5 98.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 19 17 14 12 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. 28. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 16. 19. 22. 24. 26. 28. 31. 33. 34. 35. 37. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.0 99.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042018 FOUR 06/15/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.72 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.40 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.26 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 22.2% 19.0% 14.0% 10.0% 16.6% 15.7% 15.3% Logistic: 5.6% 28.2% 14.8% 7.4% 3.9% 18.0% 29.3% 36.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 7.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.3% 4.0% 2.7% 1.3% Consensus: 5.4% 19.3% 11.7% 7.3% 4.8% 12.8% 15.9% 17.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042018 FOUR 06/15/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##