* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP032018 06/13/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 57 53 50 51 50 47 46 41 30 28 28 27 26 25 24 25 V (KT) LAND 65 57 53 50 51 50 42 44 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 65 55 49 46 44 40 33 34 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 6 6 4 6 9 7 17 22 33 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -5 -3 0 -2 1 2 0 -5 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 8 345 299 229 226 242 242 247 227 236 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.0 25.1 24.2 28.0 26.7 23.5 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 130 127 121 113 104 145 132 100 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -50.8 -50.6 -49.9 -50.0 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.1 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 4 5 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 69 66 63 64 64 66 63 54 52 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 23 20 23 21 19 17 11 6 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 28 33 51 60 39 40 28 49 34 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 36 21 20 10 37 27 35 38 38 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 0 -1 -1 -3 -1 -11 20 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 355 356 363 313 259 134 -9 55 -60 -334 -516 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.2 20.6 21.7 23.2 25.0 27.6 30.8 34.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.7 108.9 109.1 109.3 109.6 109.9 110.1 110.2 109.9 109.3 108.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 5 7 8 11 15 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 4 4 2 0 0 0 5 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -5. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -2. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -8. -12. -14. -14. -11. -8. -5. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. 1. -0. -2. -6. -15. -21. -19. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -12. -15. -14. -15. -17. -19. -24. -35. -37. -37. -38. -39. -40. -41. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 18.9 108.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/13/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.31 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -35.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.75 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 193.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/13/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##