* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP032018 06/12/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 92 85 83 79 73 65 54 47 36 27 23 19 19 19 19 21 V (KT) LAND 100 92 85 83 79 73 65 49 46 36 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 100 92 85 79 75 66 57 44 42 37 30 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 7 4 2 1 2 5 8 15 23 26 21 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -5 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -4 -4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 28 45 46 345 226 132 265 268 256 242 234 247 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.0 25.8 23.9 23.3 26.0 27.7 23.8 23.1 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 135 133 132 120 100 95 123 141 100 93 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 -51.1 -50.8 -50.9 -50.7 -50.4 -50.1 -49.9 -49.9 -49.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.6 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 3 4 5 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 74 71 69 66 66 64 67 67 57 49 40 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 26 25 27 25 24 21 18 15 9 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 49 49 40 45 59 38 33 38 52 28 62 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 104 90 50 21 22 16 32 26 40 21 9 -16 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 -1 -4 -8 -7 1 1 8 18 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 368 364 365 369 341 224 79 -8 30 32 -95 -189 -281 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.8 19.1 19.5 19.9 20.9 22.2 23.6 25.3 27.3 29.2 31.0 32.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.5 108.7 108.9 109.1 109.3 109.7 110.1 110.4 110.7 110.9 111.0 111.0 110.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 5 5 5 4 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -4. -10. -19. -29. -35. -38. -43. -48. -51. -53. -56. -58. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. 0. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -1. -3. -4. -7. -13. -19. -28. -34. -32. -29. -26. -24. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -17. -21. -27. -35. -46. -53. -64. -73. -77. -81. -81. -81. -81. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 18.4 108.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/12/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.07 0.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.82 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 200.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 -1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 12.7% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.3% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/12/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##