* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP032018 06/12/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 111 112 110 107 97 88 79 70 59 51 41 37 37 36 36 37 V (KT) LAND 110 111 112 110 107 97 88 79 70 51 49 39 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 110 110 108 103 98 87 77 67 57 43 42 37 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 8 4 4 3 6 6 4 7 13 15 20 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 1 4 3 -1 -3 -2 0 -2 3 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 69 36 39 27 27 356 355 288 261 265 248 232 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.2 26.5 25.5 23.6 23.9 27.3 27.3 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 144 143 141 133 126 116 97 101 137 137 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.7 -52.0 -51.4 -51.0 -51.4 -50.7 -51.1 -50.6 -51.1 -50.6 -50.0 -49.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.6 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 5 3 4 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 77 78 76 77 70 68 67 66 67 63 54 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 26 27 27 25 25 23 21 18 14 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 10 5 28 47 42 62 50 62 33 55 41 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 181 156 101 80 71 66 46 13 12 26 55 -7 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -3 -2 -1 0 -1 -2 -6 1 -2 -10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 330 327 326 314 301 306 296 185 44 -22 32 10 -146 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.6 20.4 21.3 22.5 24.0 25.8 27.8 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.3 107.6 107.8 108.0 108.1 108.5 109.0 109.5 110.0 110.5 110.7 110.7 110.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 8 8 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 3 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -19. -29. -38. -46. -50. -52. -56. -57. -59. -62. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -17. -25. -24. -21. -19. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 0. -3. -13. -22. -31. -40. -51. -59. -69. -73. -73. -74. -74. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 17.4 107.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/12/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.05 0.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.76 5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 117.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.78 5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 -4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.9% 22.3% 19.0% 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 6.0% 1.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.9% 9.6% 6.9% 5.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/12/18 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##