* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP032018 06/11/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 106 108 106 104 96 86 79 72 62 51 41 31 27 25 26 27 V (KT) LAND 100 106 108 106 104 96 86 79 72 62 51 41 33 34 32 32 34 V (KT) LGEM 100 107 108 105 100 89 78 69 61 53 45 38 31 32 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 13 16 15 12 9 6 10 4 4 15 9 7 4 2 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -4 -2 0 5 3 -2 -1 -1 -4 0 0 3 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 60 73 75 59 56 61 51 26 51 274 282 286 263 219 303 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.5 26.9 25.9 25.2 23.3 22.9 23.9 25.3 26.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 142 141 141 140 136 130 120 113 93 89 99 114 124 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.4 -51.1 -51.5 -51.8 -50.8 -51.7 -50.7 -51.2 -50.7 -50.9 -50.7 -50.6 -50.5 -50.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 4 5 4 4 3 5 3 3 2 4 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 78 77 77 79 76 73 69 67 66 68 65 56 45 36 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 25 25 26 26 24 24 24 20 17 14 10 7 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 18 20 13 12 46 48 64 55 66 37 58 31 35 31 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 132 153 174 132 107 72 88 83 17 14 -9 -3 -8 -9 -22 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -9 -4 -3 0 1 1 -2 -1 -1 -2 0 0 1 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 359 355 360 360 363 348 332 341 255 148 46 6 -4 7 2 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.8 18.3 19.0 19.8 20.7 21.6 22.5 23.4 24.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.6 107.1 107.5 107.8 108.0 108.2 108.5 108.9 109.3 109.7 110.1 110.4 110.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 4 4 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 8 7 7 7 7 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 424 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -13. -20. -26. -32. -38. -43. -47. -49. -51. -54. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -3. -0. 2. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 11. 10. 6. 3. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -0. -1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -8. -12. -15. -19. -21. -20. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 8. 6. 4. -4. -14. -21. -28. -38. -49. -59. -69. -73. -75. -74. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 16.5 106.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/11/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.13 1.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 7.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.33 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 139.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.90 6.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 -4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 32.8% 26.2% 22.6% 18.3% 12.5% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 23.5% 20.5% 8.0% 5.5% 3.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 20.7% 15.8% 10.3% 8.0% 5.2% 5.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/11/18 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##