* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP032018 06/11/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 96 100 98 96 90 83 78 70 61 53 46 38 33 27 25 22 V (KT) LAND 90 96 100 98 96 90 83 78 70 61 53 46 36 32 30 31 26 V (KT) LGEM 90 97 99 98 95 87 78 68 60 52 46 40 32 30 28 29 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 16 21 18 12 8 10 7 0 1 5 7 12 16 18 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -6 -2 5 5 -1 -3 0 1 2 0 1 -1 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 58 66 87 88 79 68 73 16 39 103 240 274 219 224 212 202 179 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.2 27.7 27.1 26.3 25.3 23.3 22.4 22.7 23.7 25.6 27.9 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 144 143 143 143 138 132 124 114 93 84 86 97 117 141 123 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.3 -51.1 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -51.1 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -51.2 -51.1 -50.9 -50.8 -51.2 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 2 1 3 2 700-500 MB RH 84 83 78 76 76 73 73 68 65 62 64 64 63 56 47 41 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 23 21 21 22 21 21 19 16 14 13 11 9 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 24 19 16 17 19 34 57 60 58 37 31 19 30 6 34 16 59 200 MB DIV 98 109 122 158 105 84 90 83 38 5 0 6 -10 0 -5 -4 15 700-850 TADV -11 -6 -5 -3 0 -2 1 -1 -5 -2 -6 -4 -1 0 0 -3 -10 LAND (KM) 338 327 316 318 325 329 325 329 290 181 70 14 -25 -30 -11 63 -15 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.2 18.8 19.5 20.4 21.3 22.3 23.5 24.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.7 106.3 106.8 107.2 107.5 107.9 108.3 108.7 109.2 109.7 110.2 110.6 111.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 4 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 6 4 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 9 8 8 8 7 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -7. -12. -17. -22. -27. -32. -36. -40. -42. -44. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -6. -3. -1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 8. 6. 0. -7. -12. -20. -29. -37. -44. -52. -57. -63. -65. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 16.2 105.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/11/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.23 2.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 6.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.13 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.79 5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 82.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.8% 24.2% 20.6% 16.4% 11.4% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 16.5% 16.0% 5.1% 3.3% 3.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 10.0% 3.8% 4.5% 2.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 16.4% 14.7% 10.1% 7.4% 5.2% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/11/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##