* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP032018 06/10/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 64 72 82 91 104 106 98 89 77 67 58 47 37 31 29 26 V (KT) LAND 55 64 72 82 91 104 106 98 89 77 67 58 47 34 31 32 30 V (KT) LGEM 55 64 72 80 87 96 99 94 83 74 64 54 43 31 29 31 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 5 8 4 8 8 11 2 9 6 0 5 5 6 7 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 1 2 -1 0 0 0 -2 -3 0 -1 -1 -1 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 22 37 5 18 84 117 95 79 290 67 63 79 285 263 271 225 258 SST (C) 29.7 29.2 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.2 26.4 25.6 24.8 22.9 21.3 21.2 23.3 27.1 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 162 157 152 151 147 144 140 133 125 117 109 90 73 72 94 133 130 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.1 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -50.7 -51.4 -50.4 -51.3 -50.2 -51.1 -50.6 -50.7 -50.6 -50.7 -50.3 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 8 6 7 4 5 3 4 3 3 1 2 1 4 2 700-500 MB RH 86 85 84 83 84 81 79 77 74 70 70 68 68 63 59 52 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 21 23 25 28 29 27 27 23 22 20 16 13 11 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR -6 7 16 26 23 32 39 69 61 72 63 53 25 26 21 1 37 200 MB DIV 82 99 88 91 133 130 101 102 85 61 32 15 -17 -4 -3 -4 -13 700-850 TADV -8 -9 -10 -11 -8 -4 0 -7 0 -2 -1 -1 -3 0 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 399 350 323 313 305 284 290 287 306 310 206 94 59 -6 -50 30 29 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 15.1 15.7 16.3 16.8 17.7 18.4 19.0 19.6 20.3 21.1 22.1 23.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.2 104.0 104.7 105.4 106.1 107.0 107.6 108.0 108.5 108.9 109.5 110.3 110.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 5 4 4 4 4 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 46 29 18 14 10 8 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 74.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 0. -4. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 8. 3. 1. -2. -6. -9. -10. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 10. 14. 22. 21. 12. 3. -3. -8. -12. -13. -14. -13. -13. -12. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 17. 27. 36. 49. 51. 43. 34. 22. 12. 3. -8. -18. -24. -26. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.4 103.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/10/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.60 13.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 15.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 12.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.68 11.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 14.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 10.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -38.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.95 -13.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 4.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 51% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 85% is 6.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 71% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 63% is 10.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 10.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 67% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 46% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 51.2% 85.0% 71.3% 63.3% 45.7% 66.8% 46.5% 16.9% Logistic: 69.7% 89.9% 80.0% 72.8% 39.1% 67.8% 15.2% 4.8% Bayesian: 64.9% 89.9% 93.5% 92.6% 60.8% 83.9% 22.6% 0.2% Consensus: 61.9% 88.2% 81.6% 76.3% 48.6% 72.8% 28.1% 7.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/10/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##