* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/10/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 32 28 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 36 32 28 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 35 30 27 24 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 13 11 10 8 11 11 19 13 13 14 15 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 8 4 2 6 0 0 1 1 3 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 212 217 214 212 223 183 170 154 170 133 113 137 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.1 25.8 25.6 25.4 25.5 25.8 25.6 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 123 119 117 115 116 119 116 112 111 111 111 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.3 -51.6 -51.7 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 62 61 59 56 48 41 33 31 31 30 26 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 17 16 13 11 10 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 78 87 85 61 40 58 53 57 65 70 44 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 9 8 -3 16 13 -2 6 12 -15 -16 -28 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 3 3 2 0 -2 0 -3 -8 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 880 913 949 991 1036 1123 1193 1254 1288 1311 1326 1342 1357 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.4 16.3 16.2 16.2 16.1 16.0 15.9 15.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.8 115.4 116.0 116.6 117.2 118.3 119.3 120.1 120.6 120.8 120.9 121.0 121.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -16. -17. -17. -15. -14. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -17. -23. -27. -32. -35. -35. -37. -37. -38. -37. -37. -38. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.4 114.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/10/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.44 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.44 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 186.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/10/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##