* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/10/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 37 32 29 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 37 32 29 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 36 30 26 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 15 14 11 9 7 9 15 17 11 12 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 2 7 7 8 6 0 1 3 3 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 190 202 215 215 209 188 168 153 168 156 132 129 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.5 26.1 25.7 25.6 25.9 25.9 25.6 25.5 25.6 25.9 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 127 123 118 117 120 120 116 114 114 118 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 64 61 60 57 50 44 35 29 26 31 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 18 18 16 13 12 10 9 7 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 69 84 96 95 47 56 54 55 57 71 53 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 22 13 29 22 7 17 21 4 9 -6 -6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 3 5 4 3 0 1 0 -1 -3 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 904 938 974 1014 1055 1144 1220 1282 1338 1374 1405 1430 1447 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.8 15.8 15.8 15.7 15.6 15.4 15.1 14.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.4 115.0 115.6 116.2 116.8 117.9 119.0 120.0 120.7 121.1 121.3 121.3 121.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 2 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. -17. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -16. -21. -27. -33. -39. -42. -45. -46. -48. -50. -50. -48. -47. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.9 114.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/10/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.45 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.31 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 191.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/10/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##