* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/10/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 44 38 34 29 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 44 38 34 29 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 43 35 30 26 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 20 16 16 14 9 14 10 15 8 15 12 11 12 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 0 5 9 7 6 4 1 3 1 4 5 4 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 174 190 190 211 212 209 172 161 152 149 114 112 118 123 126 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.6 26.0 25.8 25.4 25.5 25.7 25.6 25.4 25.5 25.8 26.1 26.4 26.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 128 121 119 115 116 117 116 114 115 118 120 123 126 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -51.5 -51.9 -51.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 67 64 62 58 54 45 40 35 33 33 33 29 31 31 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 21 21 19 15 14 12 10 9 6 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 64 78 95 93 67 45 44 47 37 56 64 49 35 15 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 14 15 23 8 8 33 15 0 4 -22 23 22 4 22 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 5 6 1 2 1 1 1 -1 -3 -1 0 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 884 893 907 929 954 1051 1135 1208 1278 1358 1426 1478 1532 1563 1609 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.6 16.5 16.4 16.2 16.0 15.7 15.4 15.2 14.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.0 114.6 115.1 115.7 116.2 117.4 118.5 119.4 120.2 121.0 121.6 122.1 122.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -8. -12. -14. -14. -11. -9. -7. -5. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -13. -16. -19. -21. -23. -23. -21. -19. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -14. -14. -14. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -11. -17. -21. -26. -34. -42. -49. -53. -56. -60. -62. -62. -62. -60. -60. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.9 114.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/10/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.37 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -35.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.09 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 217.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.20 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/10/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##