* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/09/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 59 49 42 38 29 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 59 49 42 38 29 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 59 50 44 39 30 24 20 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 18 18 20 20 12 9 10 14 11 16 14 10 7 9 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 8 3 7 7 7 8 2 3 1 2 8 13 13 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 190 180 191 204 210 209 176 184 141 160 111 128 123 126 102 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.1 25.9 25.5 25.4 25.6 25.4 25.3 25.3 25.7 26.3 26.5 26.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 127 122 120 116 115 117 114 113 114 117 124 126 127 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 66 62 60 56 53 46 40 34 32 29 30 30 31 33 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 22 20 21 18 15 14 11 10 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 75 72 89 99 86 55 60 45 37 44 64 54 51 18 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 37 29 18 6 3 7 -8 12 13 -1 -1 -14 8 12 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 0 0 8 1 2 0 2 0 1 -1 -2 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 844 848 855 881 909 990 1074 1160 1237 1311 1401 1485 1569 1647 1732 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.4 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.9 16.8 16.6 16.4 16.1 15.7 15.3 14.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.6 114.2 114.7 115.3 115.8 117.0 118.1 119.2 120.1 120.8 121.6 122.3 122.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 5 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. -19. -21. -22. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -7. -11. -12. -12. -9. -6. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -12. -17. -19. -23. -22. -24. -22. -21. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -7. -7. -7. -5. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -11. -21. -28. -32. -41. -49. -55. -60. -63. -66. -66. -68. -66. -63. -63. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 16.1 113.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/09/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.24 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.08 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 306.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.14 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/09/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##