* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/08/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 119 114 104 95 70 53 36 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 120 119 114 104 95 70 53 36 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 120 116 107 95 84 66 52 38 29 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 10 10 16 20 27 18 13 11 10 13 10 14 17 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 9 11 4 4 6 8 5 8 7 1 4 1 0 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 198 174 191 196 185 205 221 220 206 208 196 205 167 173 174 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.5 26.8 26.6 26.4 25.7 24.7 23.7 23.4 23.6 23.8 23.9 23.9 23.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 137 130 128 126 118 108 97 93 95 97 98 98 98 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.1 -51.8 -51.7 -51.3 -51.1 -51.3 -50.9 -51.3 -51.2 -51.4 -51.0 -51.2 -50.7 -51.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 66 67 71 68 60 57 54 49 48 46 47 47 50 45 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 26 27 24 26 23 22 18 16 14 12 10 8 7 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 50 54 73 80 76 104 57 32 66 85 86 88 105 91 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 117 108 53 26 25 13 4 -6 -3 -4 12 1 12 17 12 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -5 -2 5 4 10 2 7 1 3 3 4 2 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 788 772 754 732 716 696 722 756 775 823 869 909 957 1012 1074 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.9 17.3 18.1 18.7 19.1 19.5 19.7 19.8 19.8 19.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.5 112.0 112.4 112.9 113.4 114.3 115.3 116.3 117.2 118.1 118.8 119.3 119.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 3 3 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 15 8 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -10. -18. -29. -40. -50. -60. -68. -73. -77. -80. -83. -87. -91. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -13. -9. -5. -2. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -3. -2. -5. -7. -14. -19. -21. -24. -25. -26. -24. -24. -21. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -6. -16. -25. -50. -67. -84. -97.-106.-115.-122.-127.-130.-132.-132.-132. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 15.9 111.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/08/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.38 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 479.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.38 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/08/18 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##