* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/08/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 125 124 116 108 85 64 46 31 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 120 125 124 116 108 85 64 46 31 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 120 123 118 108 96 76 59 44 33 26 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 5 6 12 13 18 20 14 8 11 10 12 9 12 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 8 7 6 7 8 6 6 5 7 7 1 5 1 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 122 139 144 175 177 187 213 233 238 182 196 197 225 191 201 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.0 27.3 26.8 26.5 26.2 25.4 24.2 23.3 23.2 23.3 23.5 23.7 23.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 142 135 130 127 123 115 102 93 91 92 94 96 97 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -51.6 -51.6 -50.8 -50.8 -50.6 -51.0 -51.2 -51.4 -51.2 -51.3 -51.0 -51.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 65 67 65 68 63 59 55 50 43 42 41 43 44 43 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 32 30 29 30 27 25 21 17 15 12 10 8 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 53 47 48 69 71 97 81 52 43 27 25 33 65 95 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 111 111 99 48 23 29 11 -1 -13 -2 0 -1 -12 9 -2 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -8 -4 -2 0 4 2 2 3 2 0 1 1 2 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 751 769 749 731 718 689 685 717 740 771 816 858 909 973 1035 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.7 18.4 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.3 20.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.0 111.5 111.9 112.4 112.8 113.6 114.5 115.5 116.5 117.5 118.4 119.1 119.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 17 14 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -9. -17. -28. -38. -48. -57. -66. -72. -76. -79. -83. -86. -90. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -9. -6. -2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 11. 9. 5. 1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 0. -1. 0. -2. -5. -11. -17. -21. -25. -27. -26. -26. -24. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 4. -4. -12. -35. -56. -74. -89. -99.-110.-119.-125.-128.-129.-129.-128. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 15.8 111.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/08/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 497.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.35 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 30.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 18.5% 5.8% 5.6% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 18.4% 1.9% 1.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/08/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##