* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/08/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 98 102 104 101 94 79 63 48 38 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 98 102 104 101 94 79 63 48 38 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 99 102 100 97 85 73 59 46 37 31 26 22 18 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 8 9 12 13 21 20 11 2 11 12 10 14 16 15 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 6 4 3 1 2 6 4 3 4 1 1 2 0 -3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 204 231 164 174 152 178 177 216 242 245 157 180 166 165 170 168 131 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.1 26.6 26.3 25.4 24.4 23.4 23.5 23.8 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 147 146 143 133 128 124 115 104 94 94 96 98 96 97 96 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.0 -51.4 -50.7 -50.9 -50.6 -50.7 -50.8 -51.1 -50.8 -50.9 -50.6 -50.7 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.8 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 69 64 66 63 66 66 61 56 53 50 42 41 41 43 42 42 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 27 30 28 31 28 26 22 19 16 14 12 9 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 32 43 54 57 54 66 69 87 85 63 55 59 78 91 95 96 102 200 MB DIV 103 71 89 111 101 28 44 5 -1 -3 33 -1 6 -2 5 13 -1 700-850 TADV -5 -11 -6 -2 0 0 1 2 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 694 715 738 754 738 714 683 671 692 731 775 831 868 892 892 892 900 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.3 16.5 17.0 17.7 18.4 19.0 19.3 19.5 19.6 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.1 110.6 111.0 111.5 111.9 112.7 113.5 114.3 115.2 116.2 117.2 118.1 118.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 16 18 20 19 15 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -9. -14. -20. -25. -30. -34. -38. -41. -45. -49. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 8. 12. 13. 12. 8. 4. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 0. 2. 0. -3. -8. -13. -16. -19. -20. -20. -20. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 12. 14. 11. 4. -11. -27. -42. -52. -61. -71. -78. -83. -87. -89. -92. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 15.5 110.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/08/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.24 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.86 14.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.57 7.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.66 8.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 6.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 6.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 376.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.49 -4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 68% is 10.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 3.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 8.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 67.7% 48.3% 47.3% 46.3% 29.4% 19.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 48.0% 30.8% 28.2% 17.3% 6.8% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 39.2% 1.6% 1.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 51.6% 26.9% 25.6% 21.4% 12.1% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/08/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##