* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/07/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 58 63 72 75 77 72 66 54 44 37 30 26 21 18 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 58 63 72 75 77 72 66 54 44 37 30 26 21 18 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 50 52 54 58 61 63 62 56 47 38 32 28 24 21 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 8 9 7 2 9 13 12 15 10 10 12 16 19 16 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 1 0 1 9 2 1 7 5 10 0 1 2 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 275 308 288 267 262 5 109 149 166 190 179 170 163 151 144 137 115 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.4 27.7 27.2 26.5 26.1 25.8 25.3 25.1 25.0 24.8 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 154 153 152 151 146 139 134 127 122 118 113 111 110 107 103 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.8 -52.2 -51.6 -51.4 -52.0 -51.3 -51.8 -50.9 -51.2 -50.6 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -50.9 -50.9 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 70 72 72 73 70 68 69 70 63 58 52 50 46 40 36 39 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 24 26 27 29 29 31 31 31 26 22 19 15 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR -1 1 10 22 25 37 63 85 96 122 109 92 76 69 72 61 67 200 MB DIV 134 113 68 52 67 62 77 48 46 27 -5 -11 21 11 11 -14 -24 700-850 TADV -5 -11 -6 -5 -6 -8 -1 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 652 678 709 742 776 837 876 849 839 832 852 883 910 952 998 1032 1068 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.9 15.3 15.8 16.3 17.0 17.5 17.8 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.1 108.7 109.3 109.8 110.3 111.3 112.2 113.0 113.9 114.9 115.8 116.5 117.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 26 23 23 23 25 25 21 10 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 53.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 15. 15. 13. 12. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 12. 12. 12. 6. -0. -4. -7. -8. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 14. 8. 2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 27. 30. 32. 27. 21. 9. -1. -8. -15. -19. -24. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.3 108.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/07/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.68 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.62 5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.62 5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 5.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 -5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.23 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 38% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 41% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.1% 39.8% 30.4% 21.2% 14.9% 37.9% 41.4% 18.4% Logistic: 8.8% 33.9% 16.4% 10.7% 2.3% 12.0% 3.8% 1.6% Bayesian: 3.5% 9.5% 5.9% 2.2% 0.4% 3.0% 1.9% 0.1% Consensus: 8.8% 27.7% 17.6% 11.3% 5.9% 17.6% 15.7% 6.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/07/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##