* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL012018 05/28/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 51 50 52 51 47 47 45 50 40 40 38 37 36 36 38 V (KT) LAND 50 50 41 35 31 28 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 41 35 31 28 28 29 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 12 19 15 10 18 10 9 7 20 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 -4 -3 -3 -2 -1 2 2 1 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 222 211 198 219 202 209 174 160 206 235 214 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.3 26.1 23.8 11.4 0.4 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 124 127 129 129 116 98 67 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 110 107 109 111 110 99 85 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -53.8 -54.0 -54.4 -53.7 -54.5 -54.6 -55.0 -54.8 -55.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.6 -0.1 0.3 -0.3 1.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 5 4 10 2 7 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 62 64 63 65 63 69 72 71 70 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 22 19 20 15 13 13 13 17 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 103 112 100 59 43 31 30 41 96 123 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 71 42 5 27 36 15 42 48 101 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 6 5 8 7 9 9 29 16 20 -76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 104 44 -50 -169 -280 -548 -845 -975 -924 -901 -830 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.0 29.9 30.8 31.9 33.0 35.6 38.4 41.2 43.9 46.4 48.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.0 86.2 86.4 86.5 86.7 87.0 86.8 86.1 84.5 81.9 79.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 15 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 3 2 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -2. -7. -12. -14. -15. -12. -21. -22. -22. -22. -21. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 0. 2. 1. -3. -3. -5. -0. -10. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 29.0 86.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012018 ALBERTO 05/28/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.59 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 208.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.28 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.76 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 14.0% 9.2% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 4.7% 2.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 6.3% 3.8% 2.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012018 ALBERTO 05/28/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012018 ALBERTO 05/28/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 41 35 31 28 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 50 49 40 34 30 27 27 28 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 12HR AGO 50 47 46 40 36 33 33 34 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 36 33 33 34 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT