* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL012018 05/28/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 65 65 65 61 58 55 50 50 48 46 47 48 48 49 V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 55 45 32 29 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 55 61 65 59 47 33 29 28 29 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 11 8 10 17 7 20 14 13 11 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -4 -4 -5 -2 0 -1 1 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 163 215 242 202 200 202 222 203 204 213 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.8 27.8 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.4 26.0 23.9 14.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 133 133 127 128 131 130 115 99 69 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 114 114 108 109 112 110 97 85 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -53.8 -54.2 -53.8 -54.5 -54.8 -55.5 -55.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 8 8 4 11 2 7 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 65 61 61 62 62 62 64 71 75 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 24 23 22 20 17 14 14 14 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 101 103 104 104 74 29 5 11 22 90 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 29 28 42 21 24 16 27 60 53 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 2 5 9 6 4 8 15 30 8 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 159 101 67 -15 -100 -308 -577 -854 -975 -909 -933 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.3 29.0 29.7 30.5 31.3 33.4 35.9 38.4 41.0 43.7 46.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.6 86.0 86.3 86.5 86.8 87.1 87.3 87.2 86.2 84.4 82.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 10 12 12 13 14 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 6 5 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 759 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -8. -13. -14. -16. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 10. 10. 10. 6. 3. 0. -5. -5. -7. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 28.3 85.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012018 ALBERTO 05/28/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 6.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.63 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 198.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.26 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.62 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.5% 26.0% 17.3% 9.2% 7.6% 0.0% 12.7% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 12.4% 7.0% 1.3% 0.3% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 4.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.6% 13.0% 8.2% 3.6% 2.6% 0.6% 4.5% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012018 ALBERTO 05/28/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012018 ALBERTO 05/28/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 63 55 45 32 29 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 55 54 58 50 40 27 24 23 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 55 52 51 43 33 20 17 16 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 35 22 19 18 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT