* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL012018 05/26/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 38 40 43 49 52 55 57 58 57 57 57 57 59 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 38 40 43 49 34 29 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 34 34 35 36 40 31 28 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 18 18 12 8 8 11 3 3 10 6 7 2 10 11 15 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 1 4 -2 -2 2 3 0 0 8 9 0 0 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 281 263 244 250 150 110 7 193 276 240 282 195 148 239 252 246 256 SST (C) 27.8 27.0 27.5 27.9 28.0 27.7 27.8 28.5 27.7 27.7 27.3 25.6 22.9 20.1 19.9 14.3 13.1 POT. INT. (KT) 134 125 131 136 137 132 133 143 132 132 128 111 92 80 79 68 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 116 119 123 122 115 114 121 111 111 108 95 81 72 71 64 63 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -54.3 -53.7 -54.3 -53.8 -54.4 -54.2 -54.9 -54.7 -54.8 -55.1 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 8 4 10 4 9 1 5 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 70 68 68 66 67 67 60 61 62 61 66 72 75 69 69 73 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 57 61 58 70 79 75 74 25 7 -2 11 17 63 117 140 156 200 MB DIV 44 86 69 49 44 13 3 38 -5 16 7 67 30 19 19 10 8 700-850 TADV 18 17 14 13 5 -1 5 2 7 5 17 51 9 29 -4 0 -4 LAND (KM) 102 38 114 230 312 274 168 27 -107 -267 -487 -658 -664 -510 -317 -135 -39 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 22.2 23.4 24.5 25.6 27.3 28.7 30.1 31.6 33.1 35.0 37.2 39.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.0 84.8 84.7 84.9 85.1 85.9 86.6 87.2 87.5 87.5 86.8 85.3 83.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 11 11 10 8 7 8 8 9 11 13 13 12 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 60 41 33 28 24 8 6 8 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 18. 19. 17. 15. 13. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 22. 22. 22. 22. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.9 85.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012018 ALBERTO 05/26/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.47 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.23 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.52 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.41 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.81 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 13.7% 8.8% 5.9% 5.0% 7.8% 9.7% 13.5% Logistic: 0.6% 1.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 5.2% 3.2% 2.0% 1.7% 2.7% 3.4% 4.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012018 ALBERTO 05/26/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012018 ALBERTO 05/26/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 37 38 40 43 49 34 29 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 37 39 42 48 33 28 26 26 27 28 29 29 29 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 35 38 44 29 24 22 22 23 24 25 25 25 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 28 31 37 22 17 15 15 16 17 18 18 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT