* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL012018 05/25/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 42 46 52 60 59 60 55 53 47 44 43 43 43 45 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 42 46 52 60 59 60 55 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 38 40 44 49 50 50 52 39 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 26 28 23 15 16 4 17 13 22 15 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 0 -1 0 0 7 2 0 9 2 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 240 260 281 271 238 95 332 302 282 252 282 277 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.2 28.2 29.2 28.3 27.9 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 141 144 140 138 136 125 138 153 139 134 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 127 129 131 128 125 119 108 116 127 116 111 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -54.0 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -52.9 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 2.0 1.5 2.0 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 7 7 7 6 9 7 10 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 70 68 66 65 63 62 59 53 51 50 50 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 14 17 21 27 25 24 21 19 15 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 69 67 55 62 78 97 97 76 51 20 -20 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 68 55 42 41 45 -1 0 33 -16 22 15 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 0 4 6 5 8 2 5 -2 17 7 12 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 109 115 96 106 113 294 345 235 124 38 -68 -188 -329 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.1 20.7 21.6 22.5 24.8 26.7 28.1 29.1 30.0 31.1 32.4 33.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.4 86.2 86.0 85.8 85.6 85.6 86.2 87.0 87.8 88.4 88.6 88.4 88.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 9 11 11 9 7 6 5 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 32 33 34 36 50 18 4 9 12 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 14. 12. 12. 8. 4. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 25. 24. 25. 20. 18. 12. 9. 8. 8. 8. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.4 86.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012018 ALBERTO 05/25/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.20 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.93 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.84 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.58 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.71 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.38 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.89 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 18.1% 11.1% 7.6% 6.7% 9.1% 11.2% 10.7% Logistic: 1.6% 4.2% 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 7.5% 4.5% 2.6% 2.3% 3.2% 3.8% 3.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012018 ALBERTO 05/25/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012018 ALBERTO 05/25/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 42 46 52 60 59 60 55 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 36 39 43 49 57 56 57 52 36 28 25 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 38 44 52 51 52 47 31 23 20 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 35 43 42 43 38 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT