* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RINA AL192017 11/07/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 47 49 53 59 56 50 48 46 42 38 33 30 26 25 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 47 49 53 59 56 50 48 46 42 38 33 30 26 25 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 45 46 47 50 50 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 21 22 21 20 17 22 43 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -1 0 0 2 9 9 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 279 274 283 286 273 284 261 248 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.8 23.1 22.7 22.5 20.6 19.3 15.5 9.7 10.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 98 94 92 91 84 82 77 72 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 88 85 83 82 77 77 74 71 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.0 -54.9 -55.6 -57.1 -60.7 -62.0 -61.8 -57.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.9 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 64 68 64 60 65 61 62 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 20 20 19 20 21 18 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 33 35 34 16 9 -37 -59 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 34 18 -1 -5 55 80 26 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 31 32 26 26 41 57 28 33 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1560 1397 1236 1078 928 733 1045 1296 820 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.0 34.6 36.1 37.7 39.3 43.2 48.0 53.2 58.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.1 48.9 48.6 48.2 47.8 45.2 38.8 29.6 20.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 16 19 27 36 38 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 13 CX,CY: 2/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -9. -13. -18. -23. -28. -35. -39. -40. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 13. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 35. 36. 36. 34. 32. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. -1. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 13. 19. 16. 10. 8. 6. 2. -2. -7. -10. -14. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 33.0 49.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192017 RINA 11/07/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.29 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.14 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 104.5 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192017 RINA 11/07/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192017 RINA 11/07/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 45 47 49 53 59 56 50 48 46 42 38 33 30 26 25 18HR AGO 40 39 42 44 46 50 56 53 47 45 43 39 35 30 27 23 22 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 40 44 50 47 41 39 37 33 29 24 21 17 16 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 36 42 39 33 31 29 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT